The Economics and Social Benefits of NOAA Data and Products

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH
LARGE SCALE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH
VLYS.  UPR LOW NOW OVER NE KS WILL CONTINUE ENE TO LK MI BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.  THE LOW SHOULD DEVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS POTENT
UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER THE CANADIAN RCKYS ACCELERATES SE INTO
THE DAKOTAS.  FARTHER S...SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
CNTRL MEXICO AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO.  SATELLITE SHOWS A
DISTURBANCE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS FLOW...ATTM OVER DEEP S TX. 
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD SHEAR E/NE INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z
WED.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE WITH THE BUCKLING OF THE FLOW
OVER THE WRN STATES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
DECEMBER.  MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DAY 6-8 RANGE /SUN-TUE
29 NOV-1 DEC/ INTRODUCE SIZABLE VARIANCE WITH PERHAPS THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC/MEANS OFFERING THE MOST CONSISTENCY.  EXPECT THAT THE
MINOR SRN STREAM WAVE THAT EJECTS ACROSS TX LATE THIS WEEK WILL
PRIME THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN.  THEN...AS A STRONG
UPR LOW DIGS OVER THE DESERT SW SAT-SUN...A STRONGER ADVECTION OF
MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR INTO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS THE UPR LOW BEGINS TO PEAK AND

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR INTERIOR SRN CA W OF THE COASTAL
RANGE...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TO THE W...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WRN U.S...CREATING GUSTY OFFSHORE
FLOW FOR SRN CA WITH LOW RH.

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - INTERIOR SRN CA W OF THE COASTAL
RANGE...

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR INTERIOR SRN CA W OF THE COASTAL
RANGE...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE OVER
MUCH OF THE WRN U.S...EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF
COAST STATES. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN W OF THE SRN CA
COASTAL RANGE WITH LOW RH. ELSEWHERE...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
EXIST FROM NM INTO WRN AND CNTRL TX WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - INTERIOR SRN CA W OF THE COASTAL

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 261200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY OVER SRN CA ON THU/D3 WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. HOWEVER...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN CA. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS CA AND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY FRI/D4 WITH ONSHORE FLOW FOR SRN CAN AND
STRONG N WINDS ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL CA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

FROM D5 ONWARD...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SUBSTANTIAL WITH THE WRN
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR SRN CA SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6-7
PERIOD...SHOULD UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALIGN PROPERLY. PREDICTABILITY IS